In the modern statistical literature there is a notion of “true model”, by which people usually mean some abstract mathematical model, presumably lying in the core of observed process. Roughly saying, it is implied that data we have has been generated by some big guy with a white beard sitting in mathematical clouds using some […]

# International Symposium on Forecasting 2016

This time I presented a talk on Trace Forecast Likelihood, based on the presentation given at Ghent and in Higher School of Economics earlier this year. Unfortunately, I was in the session of statisticians, who discussed hypothesis testing and weren’t aware of the area of my presentation. As a result, this presentation passed without any […]

# Visit of Stephan Kolassa

This Wednesday Stephan Kolassa (Senior Research Expert at SAP) has visited Lancaster Centre for Forecasting. He gave a couple of very interesting talks and attended the presentation of PhD topics by Ivan Svetunkov, Yves Sagaert and Oliver Schaer (organised by Nikolaos Kourentzes). My topic was “Trace Forecast Likelihood”, some parts of which I have presented […]

# Complex Exponential Smoothing (Working paper)

Some time ago I have published the working paper on Complex Exponential Smoothing on ResearchGate website. This is the paper written by Nikolaos Kourentzes and I in 2015. It explains a new approach in time series modelling and in forecasting, based on a notion of “information potential”. The model, resulting from this idea, allows to […]

# International Symposium on Forecasting 2015

I have given a presentation on ISF2015 in Riverside, USA. The topic of presentation was Complex Exponential Smoothing for Time Series Forecasting. This is based on a paper submitted to International Journal on Forecasting, which is currently under review. Here’s the presentation.

# Presentation on Management Science seminar at Lancaster University

Today I have given a presentation on the topic of Complex Exponential Smoothing on Management Science seminar at Lancaster University. Lecturers and PhD students of the department attended the presentation and seemed to like it. However, only in the morning of the day I realised that I have prepared a wrong presentation (it should have […]

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