Good news everyone! The future of statistical forecasting is finally here :). Have you ever struggled with ETS and needed explanatory variables? Have you ever needed to unite ARIMA and ETS? Have you ever needed to deal with all those zeroes in the data? What about the data with multiple seasonalities? All of this and […]

# Package smooth for R

# “smooth” package for R. Intermittent state-space model. Part I. Introducing the model

UPDATE: Starting from smooth v 3.0.0, the occurrence part of the model has been removed from es() and other functions. The only one that implements this now is adam(). This post has been updated on 01 January 2021. UPDATE: Starting from smooth v 2.5.0, the model and the respective functions have changed. Now instead of […]

# “smooth” package for R. Common ground. Part IV. Exogenous variables. Advanced stuff

Previously we’ve covered the basics of exogenous variables in smooth functions. Today we will go slightly crazy and discuss automatic variables selection. But before we do that, we need to look at a Santa’s little helper function implemented in smooth. It is called xregExpander(). It is useful in cases when you think that your exogenous […]

# “smooth” package for R. Common ground. Part III. Exogenous variables. Basic stuff

One of the features of the functions in smooth package is the ability to use exogenous (aka “external”) variables. This potentially leads to the increase in the forecasting accuracy (given that you have a good estimate of the future exogenous variable). For example, in retail this can be a binary variable for promotions and we […]

# smooth functions in 2017

Over the year 2017 the smooth package has grown from v1.6.0 to v2.3.1. Now it is much more mature and has more downloads. It even now has its own hex (thanks to Fotios Petropoulos): A lot of changes happened in 2017, and it is hard to mention all of them, but the major ones are: […]

# “smooth” package for R. Common ground. Part II. Estimators

UPDATE: Starting from the v2.5.1 the cfType parameter has been renamed into loss. This post has been updated since then in order to include the more recent name. A bit about estimates of parameters Hi everyone! Today I want to tell you about parameters estimation of smooth functions. But before going into details, there are […]

# smooth v2.0.0. What’s new

Good news, everyone! smooth package has recently received a major update. The version on CRAN is now v2.0.0. I thought that this is a big deal, so I decided to pause for a moment and explain what has happened, and why this new version is interesting. First of all, there is a new function, ves(), […]

# “smooth” package for R. Common ground. Part I. Prediction intervals

UPDATE: Starting from v2.5.1 the parameter intervals has been renamed into interval for the consistency purposes with the other R functions. We have spent previous six posts discussing basics of es() function (underlying models and their implementation). Now it is time to move forward. Starting from this post we will discuss common parameters, shared by […]

# “smooth” package for R. es() function. Part VI. Parameters optimisation

UPDATE: Starting from the v2.5.6 the C parameter has been renamed into B. This is now consistent across all the functions. Now that we looked into the basics of es() function, we can discuss how the optimisation mechanism works, how the parameters are restricted and what are the initials values for the parameters in the […]

# “smooth” package for R. es() function. Part V. Essential parameters

While the previous posts on es() function contained two parts: theory of ETS and then the implementation – this post will cover only the latter. We won’t discuss anything new, we will mainly look into several parameters that the exponential smoothing function has and what they allow us to do. We start with initialisation of […]