UPDATE: Starting from smooth v 2.5.0, the model and the respective functions have changed. Now instead of calling the parameter intermittent and working with iss(), one needs to use occurrence and oes() respectively. This post has been updated on 25 April 2019. One of the features of functions of smooth package is the ability to […]

# About es() function

Posts about the es() function – ETS model, implemented in smooth

# “smooth” package for R. es() function. Part VI. Parameters optimisation

Now that we looked into the basics of es() function, we can discuss how the optimisation mechanism works, how the parameters are restricted and what are the initials values for the parameters in the optimisation of the function. This will be fairly technical post for the researchers who are interested in the inner (darker) parts […]

# “smooth” package for R. es() function. Part V. Essential parameters

While the previous posts on es() function contained two parts: theory of ETS and then the implementation – this post will cover only the latter. We won’t discuss anything new, we will mainly look into several parameters that the exponential smoothing function has and what they allow us to do. We start with initialisation of […]

# “smooth” package for R. es() function. Part IV. Model selection and combination of forecasts

Mixed models In the previous posts we have discussed pure additive and pure multiplicative exponential smoothing models. The next logical step would be to discuss mixed models, where some components have additive and the others have multiplicative nature. But we won’t spend much time on them because I personally think that they do not make […]

# “smooth” package for R. es() function. Part III. Multiplicative models

Theoretical stuff Last time we talked about pure additive models, today I want to discuss multiplicative ones. There is a general scepticism about pure multiplicative exponential smoothing models in the forecasters society, because it is not clear why level, trend, seasonality and error term should be multiplied. Well, when it comes to seasonality, then there […]

# “smooth” package for R. es() function. Part II. Pure additive models

A bit of statistics As mentioned in the previous post, all the details of models underlying functions of “smooth” package can be found in extensive documentation. Here I want to discuss several basic, important aspects of statistical model underlying es() and how it is implementated in R. Today we will have a look at basic […]

# “smooth” package for R. es() function. Part I

Good news, everyone! “smooth” package is now available on CRAN. And it is time to look into what this package can do and why it is needed at all. The package itself contains some documentation that you can use as a starting point. For example, there are vignettes, which show included functions and what they […]