M-competitions, from M4 to M5: reservations and expectations

Some of you might have noticed that the guidelines for the M5 competition have finally been released. Those of you who have previously visited this blog, might know my scepticism about the M4 competition. So, I’ve decided to write this small post, outlining my reservations about the M4 and my thoughts and expectations about the […]

A simple combination of univariate models

Fotios Petropoulos and I have participated last year in M4 competition. Our approach performed well, finishing as 6th in the competition. This paper in International Journal of Forecasting explains what we used in our approach and why. Here’s the abstract: This paper describes the approach that we implemented for producing the point forecasts and prediction […]

State space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

John Boylan and I have been working lately on a paper, explaining the logic behind the ssarima() function from the smooth package. This paper has finally been accepted and published. Also, based on a modified version of the ssarima() function, I have developed a SSARIMA module for Smoothie software, developed by DemandWorks company. Both the […]

greybox package for R

I am delighted to announce a new package on CRAN. It is called “greybox”. I know, what my American friends will say, as soon as they see the name – they will claim that there is a typo, and that it should be “a” instead of “e”. But in fact no mistake was made – […]

smooth functions in 2017

Over the year 2017 the smooth package has grown from v1.6.0 to v2.3.1. Now it is much more mature and has more downloads. It even now has its own hex (thanks to Fotios Petropoulos): A lot of changes happened in 2017, and it is hard to mention all of them, but the major ones are: […]

Seminar and presentation at Bath University

Last week I have visited Bath University, where Dr. Fotios Petropoulos works. He organised a scientific seminar, where I could present my recent research on topic “One for all: forecasting intermittent and non-intermittent demand using one model“. The presentation was well received and rose several interesting questions from the participants of the seminar, which will […]